Abstract:
Climate change continues to threaten agricultural productivity, water security, and environmental sustainability in Southern Africa, particularly within maize-based production systems that are highly sensitive to rainfall variability, drought, and increasing temperatures. At the same time, agriculture contributes substantially to Green House Gas (GHG) emissions through fertilizer application, soil management, and energy-intensive farming operations. Despite growing interest in climate-smart agriculture, there remains limited integration of greenhouse gas mitigation assessment, water productivity analysis, and decision-support technologies within smallholder and commercial maize farming systems in South Africa. This study aims to develop a carbon management tool that integrates crop modelling, climate data, and water productivity indicators to quantify climate change mitigation potential and enhance climate resilience in maize production systems.
The study will employ a modelling-based research approach using historical climate datasets, soil information, crop management data, and greenhouse gas emission factors obtained from representative maize production regions in South Africa. Crop simulation models, integrated with big data analytical techniques, will be used to evaluate the impacts of different management scenarios on maize productivity, carbon emissions, and water use efficiency. The proposed tool will estimate carbon footprints, identify mitigation opportunities, and assess the relationship between climate adaptation strategies and sustainable water resource management.
Preliminary findings indicate that conservation agriculture practices, optimized fertiliser management, and improved irrigation scheduling have significant potential to reduce GHG emissions while improving water productivity and crop resilience under changing climatic conditions. The anticipated carbon management tool is expected to support evidence-based decision-making among farmers, researchers, and policymakers by providing an integrated framework for assessing environmental sustainability and climate-smart agricultural interventions. The study contributes toward harnessing data-driven approaches for integrated water resources management and climate resilience in South Africa.
Keywords: Carbon Management Tool, Climate Resilience, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, Water Productivity.